An Unscientific Look at Science During the Pandemic

Maury Goodman, Argonne National Lab

Since the beginning of the current pandemic, the popular media has been filled with comments about “listening to the scientists”, often with an additional mention of medical professionals. And a sign that I saw on the web, probably from one of the “Marches for Science” that have taken place the last few years, read “Every disaster movie starts with a politician ignoring a scientist.” Is America listening to the scientific community right now? It appears to me that most of it is. The community of scientists doesn’t speak with one voice, but those that have something to say about how to handle the pandemic are getting a huge opportunity to have their voices heard and influence public policy.

The situation is a reminder of the history and purpose of the forum on Physics and Society. It was scientists who developed nuclear weapons, and since there were so many implications for society and public policy, many of which depended on an understanding of the laws of physics, the early members of our organization felt that discussions of those implications deserved a place in the structure of the American Physical Society. And when it was called for, physicists needed to not just discuss these issues among themselves, but also needed to raise them within our governmental structure and with the public at large. On some of those issues, the scientific community got its point across, while on others it did not.

How should we react as scientists when we hear that so many people are looking to us for answers that affect their daily lives? Physicists can easily frame some of the questions: How far do water droplets that might carry a virus travel when we talk, cough or sneeze? How long do the relevant water droplets remain suspended in the air? How effective are face masks of various compositions in protecting an individual or protecting those around him or her? These are questions for which a physicists input could help provide answers. But as a practical matter these questions may be more appropriately answered by the medical community. This opportunity to be listened to makes me feel impotent, with nothing of value to say.

During one of the earliest press conferences, I heard Dr. Fauci respond to almost every question with a response that didn’t answer the question. Many of his responses were along the lines of “it depends”. I felt this would be quite frustrating for a public that wanted answers. Yet his calm and reasoned demeanor seems to have struck a positive vibe with the nation at large, as we struggled to totally change our daily habits to respond to a problem with more unknowns than knowns. When there are future problems that cause the public to turn to the Physics community for input, this lesson may be an important one.

Another oft-repeated statement about the situation we are in is that “nobody predicted this.” An interesting book that I’ve just read is “Factfulness” by Hans Rosling, with the subtitle, “Ten reasons we’re wrong about the world – and why things are better than you think.” The main point of the book is that despite an unending chorus of doom and gloom, many important things in our world are improving significantly, from poverty rates, immunization rates, education, child mortality, life expectancy, deaths from armed conflicts, etc. (I challenge readers to take the 13-question test on pages 3-5 of the introduction. Be prepared for a surprise.) But near the end of the book he admits that there are pressing global risks that we do need to address, and his first stated concern is a global pandemic. He writes, “The world is more ready to deal with flu than it has in the past, but (many poor people) still live in societies where it can be difficult to intervene rapidly against an aggressively spreading disease.” Hans Rosling passed away in 2017, the year the book was published. It would have been interesting to hear his thoughts on the COVID-19 situation.

Now we are waiting for the development of a vaccine, which if I understand the press reports, might or might not ever happen. Jim Gaffigan, a comedian whose family response to the stay-at-home orders has been chronicled weekly on the CBS Sunday morning show, ended one segment with “…we’re counting on you nerds to solve it. Go Science!”

maury.goodman@anl.gov

These contributions have not been peer-refereed. They represent solely the view(s) of the author(s) and not necessarily the view of APS.